Welcome to the Coatesville Dems Blog

Public Corruption in Chester County, PA

I believe an unlikely mix of alleged drug trafficking related politicos and alleged white nationalist related politicos united to elect the infamous “Bloc of Four” in the abysmal voter turnout election of 2005. During their four year term the drug business was good again and white nationalists used Coatesville as an example on white supremacist websites like “Stormfront”. Strong community organization and support from law enforcement, in particular Chester County District Attorney Joseph W. Carroll has begun to turn our community around. The Chester County drug trafficking that I believe centers on Coatesville continues and I believe we still have public officials in place that profit from the drug sales. But the people here are amazing and continue to work against the odds to make Coatesville a good place to live.

Tuesday, November 8, 2016

Tom & Ray Magliozzi’s Statistician, Marge Innovera is polling & law firm Dewey, Cheatem & Howe will count the votes.

“Questions over early voting, margins of error and the accuracy of individual polls leave plenty of questions, even this close to the election.
With just one day to go until the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton’s support is at 46.8% while Donald Trump’s is at 44.3%.
When analysts refer to the Democrat’s 2.5 percentage point lead, they are talking about the difference between those two figures in polling averages.
It’s an important number but it’s also probably an inaccurate one. That’s because polling averages do not capture fully a few factors that will affect the final outcome…

Early votes..

National opinion doesn’t translate neatly to national results..

Margin of error..
The margin of error is crucial. Typically, when a poll is published, buried in the methodology section is a line that says something like “margin of error ± 3.5 percentage points”, which means for example that Clinton’s actual level of support could be as high as 50.3% or as low as 43.3%.
Since the two candidates are so close in the polls, that margin of error could be the difference between winning the popular vote or losing it…

Looking beyond the average…
What we can say with absolute certainty based on the polling data is that a lot of Americans are going to wake up disappointed on Wednesday.”

The Guardian
Mona Chalabi - Guardian US data editor

Stuff that doesn’t appear in polls:

  • Trump is an astoundingly incompetent loser. He has no internal polling. He can't afford it.  So he doesn’t know where to concentrate his resources. 
  • Trump has a bunch of schmucks running his ground game. 
  • “The mood of the country is that’s it far more populous than Washington and New York think.” - “So it’s the ‘Fuck it, I’m throwing a brick, advantage.’,,, vs. Clinton’s organizational advantage.”

 Cenk Uygur:

No comments:

Post a Comment

You can add your voice to this blog by posting a comment.