Ukraine can win. Putin's cornered. Capitulation likely means Putin’s death. He may of found a way out of his Dilemma. A Chernobyl nuclear option destroying most of Ukraine, rebellious Belarus & several NATO nations without using nuclear weapons.

“The generators have enough fuel for 48 hours, and repair to the transmission lines is made impossible by continued combat operations in the area.” - NPR

Meeting scene - HBO Chernobyl 2019 | Episode 02 

 Ulana Khomyuk, the intrepid nuclear physicist from nearby Belarus played by Emily Watson, who recognize the enormity of the danger — and quickly mobilize. Ulana was one in a network of scientists who outsmarted the swarm of misinformation surrounding the Chernobyl explosion. 

Valery Alekseyevich Legasov (Russian: Валерий Алексеевич Легасов; 1 September 1936 – 27 April 1988) was a Soviet and Russian inorganic chemist and a member of the Academy of Sciences of the Soviet Union. He is now mainly remembered for his work in containment of the Chernobyl disaster and presenting the investigation findings to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in Vienna.

"Ulana Khomyuk, A significant thermal explosion 

  Gorbachev, How significant?

 “Between 2 & 4 megatons everything within a 30 kilometer radius will be completely destroyed, including the 3 remaining reactors at Chernobyl. The entirety of the radioactive material in all of the cores will be injected at force and dispersed by a massive shockwave which will extend approximately 200 kilometers and likely be fatal to the entire population of Kiev as well as well as a portion of Minsk. 

The release of radiation would be severe and will impact all of Soviet Ukraine, Latvia, Lithuania, Belarus, as well as Poland, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Rumania & most of East Germany. 

Gorbachev, What do you mean impact?

Valery Legasov, Scientist, For much of the area a nearly permeant distraction of the food and water supply. Steep increase of in the rates of cancer & breast defects, I don’t know how many deaths there will be but many. "

***

"Russian dictator Vladimir Putin has stated clearly that he won’t be calling up reservists for the war. He’s a liar, of course, but he’s also a liar paranoid about his people turning on him. There’s no way to message “the ‘limited military operation’ is going well, but hey, we need hundreds of thousands more bodies to throw at it!” All indications—both from the Pentagon, but also from private satellite observers, is that Russia has already committed its entire pre-invasion force to the battle. There’s no one else coming, which is why Russia is overly depending on a Chechen private army and recruiting Syrian mercenaries. Belarus has refused to send troops (despite its dictator promising them). The rest of its “allies” aren’t stepping up, nervously avoiding eye contact. Meanwhile, battlefield attrition is actually removing entire units from the battlefield. Russia may have equipment superiority, and a willingness to use artillery to level entire cities. But it will never have more troops than what Ukraine can bring to bear—an entire national resistance. The fact that Russia can't even get to the guerrilla phase of the war is just icing on the cake.

Some estimates pin the cost of the war at around $2 billion per day for Russia, all the while the ruble collapses and economic sanctions take a toll. The more Russians come home in coffins, the more POWs phone their moms, the more discontent Putin will face from his populace. Time is not on his side. But what other option does he have? If he pulls out now, he’ll be the laughing stock of the world, his mighty WORLD POWER army bested by a country Russia considered so inferior, that a big premise of the attack is “they should be our vassal state.” Ukraine is so emboldened, it easily swatted away Russia’s latest peace proposal (no NATO or EU, occupied Crimea and Donbas remain in de facto Russian hands), even as it constituted a major retreat from its original stance (complete capitulation). There is no “off ramp” possible that would allow Putin to save face. Capitulation likely means death (or a trip to The Hague to face war crimes trial). He can’t stop now. He can only keep going, sowing death and destruction for a prize that is beyond his grasp. 

It’s been several weeks since I wrote that headline, and Putin is still backed into a corner. As to how much the world will have to pay? Ukraine’s price is unthinkable, and the economic consequences are just starting—for Russia, and for the rest of the world. And we can’t even guarantee that this won’t spread into a wider conflagration."

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Ukraine update: Putin has no options left, other than to ride this thing out

Wednesday, Mar 9, 2022 · 8:02:05 AM EST · Mark Sumner