Tuesday, November 8, 2016

Tom & Ray Magliozzi’s Statistician, Marge Innovera is polling & law firm Dewey, Cheatem & Howe will count the votes.

“Questions over early voting, margins of error and the accuracy of individual polls leave plenty of questions, even this close to the election.
With just one day to go until the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton’s support is at 46.8% while Donald Trump’s is at 44.3%.
When analysts refer to the Democrat’s 2.5 percentage point lead, they are talking about the difference between those two figures in polling averages.
It’s an important number but it’s also probably an inaccurate one. That’s because polling averages do not capture fully a few factors that will affect the final outcome…

Early votes..

National opinion doesn’t translate neatly to national results..

Margin of error..
The margin of error is crucial. Typically, when a poll is published, buried in the methodology section is a line that says something like “margin of error ± 3.5 percentage points”, which means for example that Clinton’s actual level of support could be as high as 50.3% or as low as 43.3%.
Since the two candidates are so close in the polls, that margin of error could be the difference between winning the popular vote or losing it…

Looking beyond the average…
What we can say with absolute certainty based on the polling data is that a lot of Americans are going to wake up disappointed on Wednesday.”

MORE AT:
The Guardian
Mona Chalabi - Guardian US data editor




Stuff that doesn’t appear in polls:

  • Trump is an astoundingly incompetent loser. He has no internal polling. He can't afford it.  So he doesn’t know where to concentrate his resources. 
  • Trump has a bunch of schmucks running his ground game. 
  • “The mood of the country is that’s it far more populous than Washington and New York think.” - “So it’s the ‘Fuck it, I’m throwing a brick, advantage.’,,, vs. Clinton’s organizational advantage.”

 Cenk Uygur:


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