“Questions over early voting, margins of error and the
accuracy of individual polls leave plenty of questions, even this close to the
election.
With just one day to go until the 2016 presidential
election, Hillary Clinton’s support is at 46.8% while Donald Trump’s is at
44.3%.
When analysts refer to the Democrat’s 2.5 percentage point
lead, they are talking about the difference between those two figures in
polling averages.
It’s an important number but it’s also probably an
inaccurate one. That’s because polling averages do not capture fully a few
factors that will affect the final outcome…
Early votes..
National opinion doesn’t translate neatly to national
results..
Margin of error..
The margin of error is crucial. Typically, when a poll is
published, buried in the methodology section is a line that says something like
“margin of error ± 3.5 percentage points”, which means for example that
Clinton’s actual level of support could be as high as 50.3% or as low as 43.3%.
Since the two candidates are so close in the polls, that
margin of error could be the difference between winning the popular vote or
losing it…
Looking beyond the average…
What we can say with absolute certainty based on the polling
data is that a lot of Americans are going to wake up disappointed on Wednesday.”
MORE AT:
The Guardian
Mona Chalabi - Guardian US data editor
Stuff that doesn’t appear in polls:
- Trump is an astoundingly incompetent loser. He has no internal polling. He can't afford it. So he doesn’t know where to concentrate his resources.
- Trump has a bunch of schmucks running his ground game.
- “The mood of the country is that’s it far more populous than Washington and New York think.” - “So it’s the ‘Fuck it, I’m throwing a brick, advantage.’,,, vs. Clinton’s organizational advantage.”
Cenk Uygur:
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